BLS Analysis
BLS Analysis for July 2010

Bob Marshall’s BLS Analysis; 8/6/10

The unemployment rate is published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, a division of the US Department of Labor.  The rate is found by dividing the number of unemployed by the total civilian labor force.  On August 6, 2010, the BLS published the most recent unemployment rate for July, 2010 of 9.5% (actually it is 9.507%; marginally down from 9.511% in June, 2010).  This was determined by dividing the unemployed of 14,599,000 (down from the month before by 24,000—since July, 2009 (one year ago), this number has increased by 65,000) by the total civilian labor force of 153,560,000 (down by 181,000 from June 2010).  Since July 2009, our total civilian labor force has shrunk by 791,000 people.  On the surface, these new unemployment rates are scary, but let’s look a little deeper and consider some other numbers.

The unemployment rate includes all types of workers.  We recruiters, on the other hand, mainly place management, professional and related types of workers.  That unemployment rate in July was fixed at 5.0% (this rate has been floating between 4.5% and 5.0% since October 2009).  Or, you can look at it another way.  We usually place people who have college degrees.  That unemployment rate in July was fixed at 4.5% (this rate increased by .1% from June’s low of 4.4%--the lowest it had been since April 2009).

Now stay with me a little longer.  This gets better.  It’s important to understand (and none of the pundits mention this) that the unemployment rate, for many reasons, will never be 0%, no matter how good the economy is.  Without boring you any more than I have already, just let me add here that Milton Friedman (the renowned economist), is famous for ‘the theory of the natural rate of unemployment’ or NAIRU.  This theory states that full employment presupposes an ‘unavoidable and acceptable’ unemployment rate of somewhere between 4-6% with it.  So, you see, in our main category of management, professional and related types of potential recruits, and/or our other main category of college-degreed potential recruits, we have no unemployment!  None!  Zilch!  That’s why we have to recruit these folks.


Below are the numbers for the over 25 year olds:


Less that H.S. diploma – Unemployment Rate

 

12/08

10.9%

 

1/09

2/09

3/09

4/09

5/09

6/09

7/09

8/09

9/09

10/09

11/09

12/09

12.0%

12.6%

13.3%

14.8%

15.5%

15.5%

15.4%

15.6%

15.0%

15.5%

15.0%

15.3%

 

1/10

2/10

3/10

4/10

5/10

6/10

7/10

8/10

9/10

10/10

11/10

12/10

15.2%

15.6%

14.5%

14.7%

15.0%

14.1%

13.8%

 

 

 

 

 

 

H.S. Grad; no college – Unemployment Rate

 

12/08

7.7%

 

1/09

2/09

3/09

4/09

5/09

6/09

7/09

8/09

9/09

10/09

11/09

12/09

8.1%

8.3%

9.0%

9.3%

10.0%

9.8%

9.4%

9.7%

10.8%

11.2%

10.4%

10.5%

 

1/10

2/10

3/10

4/10

5/10

6/10

7/10

8/10

9/10

10/10

11/10

12/10

10.1%

10.5%

10.8%

10.6%

10.9%

10.8%

10.1%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Some College; or AA/AS – Unemployment Rate

 

12/08

5.6%

 

1/09

2/09

3/09

4/09

5/09

6/09

7/09

8/09

9/09

10/09

11/09

12/09

6.2%

7.0%

7.2%

7.4%

7.7%

8.0%

7.9%

8.2%

8.5%

9.0%

9.0%

9.0%

 

1/10

2/10

3/10

4/10

5/10

6/10

7/10

8/10

9/10

10/10

11/10

12/10

8.5%

8.0%

8.2%

8.3%

8.3%

8.2%

8.3%

 

 

 

 

 

 

BS/BS + – Unemployment Rate

 

12/08

3.7%

 

1/09

2/09

3/09

4/09

5/09

6/09

7/09

8/09

9/09

10/09

11/09

12/09

3.8%

4.1%

4.3%

4.4%

4.8%

4.7%

4.7%

4.7%

4.9%

4.7%

4.9%

5.0%

 

1/10

2/10

3/10

4/10

5/10

6/10

7/10

8/10

9/10

10/10

11/10

12/10

4.9%

5.0%

4.9%

4.9%

4.7%

4.4%

4.5%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Management, Professional & Related – Unemployment Rate

 

12/08

3.3%

 

1/09

2/09

3/09

4/09

5/09

6/09

7/09

8/09

9/09

10/09

11/09

12/09

4.1%

3.9%

4.2%

4.0%

4.6%

5.0%

5.5%

5.4%

5.2%

4.7%

4.6%

4.6%

 

1/10

2/10

3/10

4/10

5/10

6/10

7/10

8/10

9/10

10/10

11/10

12/10

5.0%

4.8%

4.7%

4.5%

4.5%

4.9%

5.0%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Or employed…(,000)

 

12/08

52,548

 

1/09

2/09

3/09

4/09

5/09

6/09

7/09

8/09

9/09

10/09

11/09

12/09

52,358

52,196

52,345

52,597

52,256

51,776

51,810

51,724

52,186

52,981

52,263

52,131

 

1/10

2/10

3/10

4/10

5/10

6/10

7/10

8/10

9/10

10/10

11/10

12/10

52,159

52,324

52,163

52,355

51,839

51,414

50,974

 

 

 

 

 

 

And unemployed…(,000)

 

12/08

1,802

 

1/09

2/09

3/09

4/09

5/09

6/09

7/09

8/09

9/09

10/09

11/09

12/09

2,238

2,137

2,292

2,164

2,373

2,720

3,034

2,925

2,859

2,593

2,530

2,509

 

1/10

2/10

3/10

4/10

5/10

6/10

7/10

8/10

9/10

10/10

11/10

12/10

2,762

2,637

2,600

2,464

2,450

2,644

2,687

 

 

 

 

 

 

For a total Management, Professional & Related workforce of…(,000)

 

12/08

54,350

 

1/09

2/09

3/09

4/09

5/09

6/09

7/09

8/09

9/09

10/09

11/09

12/09

54,596

54,333

54,637

54,761

54,629

54,496

54,844

54,649

55,045

55,574

54,793

54,640

 

1/10

2/10

3/10

4/10

5/10

6/10

7/10

8/10

9/10

10/10

11/10

12/10

54,921

54,961

54,763

54,819

54,289

54,058

53,661

 

 

 

 

 

 

Management, Business and Financial Operations – Unemployment Rate

 

12/08

3.9%

 

1/09

2/09

3/09

4/09

5/09

6/09

7/09

8/09

9/09

10/09

11/09

12/09

4.6%

4.5%

4.5%

4.4%

4.6%

4.8%

4.9%

5.0%

5.2%

5.4%

5.4%

5.2%

 

1/10

2/10

3/10

4/10

5/10

6/10

7/10

8/10

9/10

10/10

11/10

12/10

5.2%

5.1%

5.4%

5.1%

4.9%

4.8%

4.7%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Professional & Related – Unemployment Rate

 

12/08

2.9%

 

1/09

2/09

3/09

4/09

5/09

6/09

7/09

8/09

9/09

10/09

11/09

12/09

3.7%

3.5%

3.9%

3.6%

4.2%

5.1%

6.0%

5.6%

5.2%

4.2%

4.1%

4.2%

 

1/10

2/10

3/10

4/10

5/10

6/10

7/10

8/10

9/10

10/10

11/10

12/10

4.9%

4.6%

4.3%

4.1%

4.3%

5.0%

5.2%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sales & Related – Unemployment Rate

 

12/08

7.0%

 

1/09

2/09

3/09

4/09

5/09

6/09

7/09

8/09

9/09

10/09

11/09

12/09

7.7%

8.4%

8.9%

8.6%

8.9%

9.1%

8.3%

8.7%

8.9%

9.5%

9.1%

8.9%

 

1/10

2/10

3/10

4/10

5/10

6/10

7/10

8/10

9/10

10/10

11/10

12/10

10.1%

10.2%

9.7%

9.2%

9.6%

9.4%

10.1%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 



 
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